Commodity prices and macroeconomic vulnerability: a descriptive analysis of the terms of trade in the Turkic Republics (2000–2023)
Received: 2026-05-30
Published: 2026-06-06
Abstract
This study descriptively examines the differentiated macroeconomic effects of global commodity price fluctuations on six Turkic Republics—Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The primary objective of the study is to reveal the divergence in responses of net commodity-exporting and net commodity-importing economies to common price shocks by focusing on the Net Barter Terms of Trade Index, which represents the direct macroeconomic manifestation of commodity price movements. The dataset is compiled from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and covers the period from 2000 to 2023. It includes indicators related to terms of trade, trade openness, international reserves, GDP growth, external debt stock, and inflation. The analysis employs trend analysis, period (regime) comparisons, volatility measurements based on the coefficient of variation, and descriptive co-movement analysis. The findings indicate that terms-of-trade volatility in commodity-exporting economies (Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan) is approximately four to five times higher than that observed in commodity-importing Türkiye. During the 2022 energy shock, the same global price movement generated substantial gains for exporting economies (reaching +268% in Turkmenistan), whereas Türkiye experienced significant losses (−24%). While a positive descriptive co-movement between terms of trade and economic growth is observed in exporting economies, periods of commodity price collapse are associated with sharp contractions in economic growth. The study offers concrete policy implications, including the establishment of stabilization funds, the adoption of countercyclical policies based on fiscal rules, and the diversification of energy supply sources. Given its descriptive research design, the study does not claim causality; rather, it proposes an econometric research agenda for future investigations.
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